Cyber warfare is no longer a futuristic concept; it's a present-day reality. Recorded Future's 2026 State of Security Report highlights a significant evolution: cyber operations have become a fundamental instrument of global power. This report emphasizes the shift towards persistent pressure tactics by nation-states, the increasing entanglement of cyber activity with geopolitics, and the accelerating role of artificial intelligence in cyber threats. Understanding these trends is crucial for organizations and governments to protect their critical infrastructure and national security.
Cyber Operations as Geopolitical Tools
The Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Report [1] paints a stark picture: cyber operations are no longer just about data breaches and financial theft. They have evolved into a core component of global power projection and geopolitical strategy. Nation-states are increasingly using cyber capabilities to exert influence,
Key Findings from Recorded Future's 2026 Report
The Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Report [2] reveals several critical trends shaping the cybersecurity landscape:
- Cyber operations as a core tool of global power: Cyber activities are now inseparable from physical conflict and coercion.
- Shift to persistent pressure tactics: Nation-states are focusing on pre-positioning, credential theft, and identity access management to maintain a constant presence in target networks.
- Cyber coercion through connectivity disruptions: Targeting undersea cables, satellites, and telecom infrastructure is emerging as a low-escalation method of coercion.
- AI-accelerated threats: Artificial intelligence is amplifying the sophistication and scale of cyberattacks, including deepfake fraud and synthetic identity fraud.
- 2025 as an inflection point: Cyber activity and geopolitics are becoming increasingly intertwined, blurring the lines between espionage, sabotage, and warfare.
Nation-State Tactics: Pre-positioning and Credential Theft
According to the report, nation-states are moving away from high-profile, destructive attacks towards more subtle and persistent tactics. Pre-positioning involves gaining access to target networks and systems in advance, allowing attackers to maintain a long-term presence and launch attacks at a time of their choosing. Credential theft, including targeting identity systems and edge infrastructure, provides attackers with the means to move laterally within a network and access sensitive data. These tactics enable continuous espionage and create opportunities for rapid escalation without immediate detection.
As the Insikt Group, Recorded Future Research Team, notes, "The primary risk is no longer a single, large-scale cyber incident. It's sustained pre-positioning that enables persistent espionage in peacetime and creates latent capacity for disruption during crises." [Recorded Future Blog]
Cyber Coercion and Connectivity Disruption Strategies
The report highlights the growing use of connectivity disruptions as a form of cyber coercion. By targeting critical infrastructure such as undersea cables, satellites, and telecommunications networks, nation-states can exert pressure on other countries without resorting to overt military action. These disruptions can have significant economic and social consequences, making them an effective tool for achieving geopolitical objectives. This approach allows for actions below the threshold that would trigger a larger conflict.
The Role of AI in Accelerating Cyber Threats
Artificial intelligence is playing an increasingly significant role in both offensive and defensive cyber operations. On the offensive side, AI is being used to automate the discovery of vulnerabilities, generate sophisticated phishing attacks, and create highly realistic deepfakes. The report notes a 10x increase in deepfake-enabled fraud since 2024 and a 300% increase in synthetic identity fraud [Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Report]. These trends highlight the need for organizations to invest in AI-powered security solutions to detect and respond to these evolving threats.
2025 as an Inflection Point: Convergence of Cyber and Geopolitics
The Recorded Future report identifies 2025 as a critical inflection point where cyber activity and geopolitics have become deeply intertwined. This convergence means that cyberattacks are no longer isolated incidents but are often part of a broader geopolitical strategy. Understanding the geopolitical context of cyber threats is essential for effective risk management and incident response. The report emphasizes the need for organizations to integrate threat intelligence with geopolitical analysis to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the threat landscape.
In 2025, publicly reported ransomware attacks rose 47% to 7,200, despite lower payouts, with 289 new variants (33% YoY) [Recorded Future Intelligence].
Implications for Global Security and Critical Infrastructure
The trends highlighted in the Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Report have significant implications for global security and critical infrastructure. The increasing use of cyber operations as a tool of statecraft raises the risk of miscalculation and escalation. Critical infrastructure, including energy grids, financial systems, and healthcare networks, is particularly vulnerable to cyberattacks. Protecting these systems requires a collaborative effort between governments, private sector organizations, and cybersecurity professionals.
Recommendations for Organizations and Governments
To address the evolving cyber threat landscape, the report offers several recommendations for organizations and governments:
- Prioritize identity security: Implement strong authentication measures and monitor identity access to prevent credential theft and unauthorized access.
- Integrate threat intelligence: Fuse threat intelligence with geopolitical analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the threat landscape.
- Enhance resilience: Develop incident response plans and conduct regular exercises to prepare for and recover from cyberattacks.
- Invest in AI-powered security solutions: Deploy AI-based tools to detect and respond to sophisticated cyber threats, including deepfakes and synthetic identities.
- Foster collaboration: Promote information sharing and collaboration between governments, private sector organizations, and cybersecurity professionals.
According to Insikt Group analysts, "Warning timelines are compressing. The adversaries are already inside." [2026 State of Security Report].
The Bottom Line
The Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Report provides a valuable assessment of the evolving cybersecurity landscape. Cyber operations have become a core tool of global power, and nation-states are increasingly using cyberattacks to achieve their geopolitical objectives. Organizations and governments must adapt their cybersecurity strategies to address these evolving threats, prioritizing identity security, threat intelligence, and resilience. By taking proactive measures, they can protect their critical infrastructure and national security in an increasingly complex and dangerous cyber environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are cyber operations?
Cyber operations refer to activities conducted in cyberspace to achieve specific objectives, including espionage, sabotage, and influence operations.
How do cyber operations impact global security?
Cyber operations can destabilize nations, disrupt economies, and undermine trust in institutions, making them a critical factor in global security dynamics.
What measures can organizations take to enhance cybersecurity?
Organizations should prioritize identity security, integrate threat intelligence, enhance resilience, invest in AI-powered security solutions, and foster collaboration.
Sources
- Automated Pipeline
- State of Security Report - Recorded Future
- Fragmentation Defined 2025's Threat Landscape. Here's What It Means for 2026
- Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Report warns cyber operations have become a core tool of global power
- New ransomware tactics to watch out for in 2026 - Recorded Future
- Source: recordedfuture.com
- Source: recordedfuture.com
- Source: recordedfuture.com
